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美国出现严重误判，着手切断伊朗经济命脉，伊方：美自断和平后路,兵器集中营,原创 美国出现严重误判，着手切断伊朗经济命脉，伊方：美自断和平后路_我的网站

一 |     尽管美国试图通过强硬手段控制局面，但现状却显得格外狼狈。美国在中东的军事基地频繁遭到来自伊朗的无人机和导弹袭击，这不仅损害了其军事威望，同时迫使美军不得不将注意力转向维持海湾地区的庞大军事力量，从而导致亚太地区的部队呈现出收缩的趋势。

二 |     短暂的停火并未能为局势带来真正的缓解，霍尔木兹海峡依然处于封锁状态。这个重要的国际水道不仅关系到全球的油气供应，更是对抗经济制裁与地缘政治博弈的重要战场。    Russian Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev weighed in on the issue of global food security on Friday, warning that a crisis of planetary proportions is taking shape.,“The situation in global markets is difficult, especially for wheat. This season, due to a number of factors, including drought in the US and Europe, floods in Australia and bad weather in India, the global supply of milling wheat will drop. Also, due to climate anomalies, a decrease in the quality of wheat in North America is expected, first and foremost in the United States. All of this, together with logistical restrictions, could lead to serious risks in terms of global food security in the current agricultural year,” Patrushev said, speaking to ministry officials in Bashkiria.,Patrushev updated officials on the state of Russia’s harvesting campaign, saying about 27 percent of the fields have been cultivated, with 55 million tons of grain collected – a good indicator, but far below yields shown a year ago, thanks to a cold spring, poor weather and problems with obtaining parts for foreign-made agricultural equipment.,“Altogether, this creates risks in terms of achieving [the planned] grain harvest of 130 million tons. Of course, we will fully provide for the domestic market, there will not be any problems with this. However, if the planned volumes are not reached, we will have to revise our export target of 50 million tons, and this may have a negative impact on the world grain market,” the minister warned.,Russian Agriculture Ministry Warns of Risks to Global Food Security in Current Crop Year 5 August, 09:08 GMT,Sanctions Food for Thought,The United States and Europe got a rude awakening in the spring when the nations of the Global South refused to join them in slapping sanctions on Russia after it kicked off its special military operation in Ukraine. While the US, Canada, the UK, the European Union, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand drafted thousands upon thousands of new restrictions against Moscow, not a single country in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, or non-US allied East Asia has joined them so far.,The developing world’s quest for food security, and Russia’s status as a major global exporter of both grains and fertilizers, is undoubtedly an important factor in calculations made by regional leaders when it comes to sanctions.,At the same time, the Global South has not been spared the consequences of the West’s secondary restrictions. African Union chief and Senegalese President Macky Sall outlined the scope of the problem in June, telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that sanctions had “aggravated the situation with the supply of grains and fertilizers to African countries,” and sparked “a serious threat to food security” for the continent.,AfricaAnti-Russia Sanctions Left Africa Without Access to Grain and Fertilisers, African Union Chief Says3 June, 11:13 GMT,Notwithstanding concerns about global food security going back to the COVID crisis of 2020 and 2021, which wreaked havoc on supply chains and aggravated economic pain across much of the developing world, the US and its allies unflinchingly and nearly instantaneously slapped agriculture- and fertilizer-related sanctions on Russia and its ally, Belarus, in February and March of 2022.,Oleg Kobiakov, director of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Russian liaison office, recently revealed that his agency estimates that some 828 million people were suffering from hunger at the end of 2021, with their numbers increasing by some 150 million people compared to the pre-COVID year 2019. Amid the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis and Western sanctions, Kobiakov stressed the importance of the FAO-proposed international fund to support the export of food, fertilizers, and energy to assist developing countries, particularly in Africa.,Western Sanctions, Global Consequences,The sanctions slapped on Russia in the spring of 2022, which included direct restrictions on food and fertilizer exports, plus efforts to limit Russia’s trade in agricultural commodities with third countries via so-called secondary sanctions on cargo ships or insurance providers, have already had a noticeable impact on food security, not only in the Global South, but the very heart of the so-called "First World" as well.,Earlier this year, German media sounded the alarm after calculating that the country’s farmers stand to lose some three million tons of agricultural output thanks to sanctions. In June, Bild reported that nearly one in six Germans is forced to skip meals thanks to out-of-control hikes in food prices.,In neighboring Poland, local media reported this week that Ukrainian wheat supplies flooding into the country were causing a “catastrophic” dampening of prices for domestic producers. “If the situation doesn’t improve, there will be riots in the countryside!” a farmer in Plonsk told a Wyborcza correspondent.,In Italy, the National Institute of Statistics has reported a double-digit jump in prices for flour and pasta, with prices for the staple components of Italian cooking growing between 18 and 21.5 percent year-on-year in July, and the cost of cooking oil spiking by a whopping 66 percent.,RussiaLIVE UPDATES: First Bulker With Ukrainian Grain Reaches Istanbul2 August, 05:00 GMT,Food insecure regions of the planet have fared even worse. According to a recent estimate by international aid agency Mercy Corps, flour prices in Lebanon, which depends on Russia and Ukraine for over 80 percent of its wheat flower needs, have jumped over 200 percent since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis.,For many countries, the Ukrainian emergency has only served to exacerbate an array of already existing problems. In Morocco, for example, Agriculture Minister Mohammed Sadiki reported in the spring that the country expects to lose up to 53 percent of its grain harvest this year due to the worst drought of the decade. The Horn of Africa faces similar worries amid the worst regional drought in 40 years. In Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, over 18 million people face hunger, and British charitable group Oxfam International fears that as many as 350,000 children could die from malnutrition this year in Somalia alone.,Earlier this year, the UN’s Refugee Agency calculated that the numbers of people forced to flee their homes in search of a better life had reached its highest-ever recorded number, with food scarcity, inflation, and the climate crisis adding to existing hardships and stretching humanitarian resources to the breaking point. According to the World Food Program, the number of people suffering from hunger could increase by 30-50 million people, with the poorest countries of Africa including Somalia, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Chad, and Congo expected to be hit hardest.,RussiaFighting Africa's Food Crisis: Russia Strengthening Ties and Stretching Helping Hand to Kenya3 August, 10:08 GMT,In June, the WFP warned that in Latin America too, food inflation is threatening to cause a migration wave of Biblical proportions amid calculations that some 14 million people across 13 countries are threatened with “extreme” food insecurity – up from 8.3 million in late 2021, if the current crisis continues.,“All of you are watching caravans, caravans of migrants moving, and before we used to talk about migration from the north of Central America, but now, unfortunately, we talk about migration being hemispheric. We have the whole continent on the move,” WEF Latin America and the Caribbean region coordinator Lola Castro told reporters.,Good for the Goose, But Not the Gander?,Last month, on the heels of the signing of the Russia-Ukraine-UN grain deal, the US Treasury reversed course on a number of food and fertilizer sanctions directives, “clarifying” in a fact sheet that it would no longer threaten secondary restrictions for the purchase or transport of Russian agricultural commodities. For the domestic market, Washington quietly eased restrictions on Russian agricultural products, including fertilizers, back in March, after the domestic farming lobby warned of out-of-control price hikes and possible food shortages.,Brussels, which joined Washington in slapping tough restrictions on Moscow in the spring, did not follow suit in easing them until late last month, after the damage to domestic and international markets had already been done.,WorldEU Reportedly Set to Unfreeze Some Russian Bank Funds for Food, Fertilizer Trade19 July, 10:26 GMT,Biden administration National Economic Council director Brian Deese raised eyebrows late last month when he boasted that compared to the rest of the world, the United States is in a better position to weather the global food security crisis.,“With respect to food, we’re a net exporter of agricultural commodities. Obviously the high prices are hitting Americans very hard, but in a way that is different from some places that are facing famine for example,” Deese said.,Biden economic advisor Brian Deese says the U.S. is doing better economically than other countries because we’re not in a “famine” pic.twitter.com/2JwO7YneOI— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 27, 2022,Biden’s detractors blasted the White House over Deese’s comments, suggesting it was absurd to lower the bar on the administration’s economic performance to the point where it was bragging that "at least the US isn’t facing famine." However, in the broader scheme of things, and amid the global food security crisis artificially exacerbated by Washington and its allies using sanctions, Deese isn’t wrong, with other countries, including many of the US’ allies, suffering much more.,Quo Vadis?,Serbia, home to the so-called “Balkan route” for migration during the 2015 European migrant crisis, has recently reported a major uptick in immigration amid the global food crisis.,On July 20, Serbian Commissioner for Refugees and Migration Vladimir Cucic indicated that the number of migrants traveling through Serbia had jumped 55 percent in 2022, with the number of people from Africa, Asia and the Middle East using the country as a transit state reaching 68,000, and expected to hit 100,000 before the end of the year. Cucic is confident that the global food crisis is directly responsible for the migration uptick, which he said has hit Africa, Pakistan, Bangladesh, parts of India and other Asian nations hardest.,“Hunger is forcing more and more people to move on out. You’re not going to wait and see how your children die from hunger, you will give them everything you have and tell them "get out of here!’” the official stressed.,UK Home Office Fails to Handle Increased Flow of Migrants Via English Channel21 July, 18:30 GMT,Food scarcity has been a factor driving revolutions, coups, wars, and civil unrest throughout human history, and has been used expertly by foreign manipulators to spark crises and institute regime change throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. Food insecurity was a critical factor in the so-called "Arab Spring" unrest which swept across the Middle East and North Africa in early 2010. That crisis, together with the US and NATO military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, helped spark the 2015 European migrant wave, which saw more than 1.3 million people making their way to the continent, sparking mass unrest and a host of other social ills and problems in the countries that were made to accept the newcomers.,Observers fear that the second time around, the situation could prove far more explosive.,“Europe is not prepared morally, technically, or politically to accept additional refugees. They already overstrained themselves with the Syrian crisis,” Elena Suponina, an advisor to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told Sputnik in an interview.,The West, Suponina believes, is not ready to “save” people from Africa and Asia in the event of a global food crisis which she says has been manufactured by the United States.,“The United States has always been interested in limiting the strength of the European economies. Besides being partners, they are also competitors. The US has always kept in mind that Europe is first and foremost a competitor,” the expert stressed.,Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends - an Italy-based international affairs think tank, echoed Suponina's concerns, suggesting that Europe is "by no means ready to handle new potential waves of migrants," and still reeling from the consequences of the 2015 crisis. At the same time, he said, hunger has been a "recurring theme" in a world dominated by the West and its political and economic systems of governance.,"The food crisis is mainly due to the predatory policies carried out - in recent decades - by the so-called Western system in the different corners of the world. The hyper-liberal-democratic policies of the West have favoured the large globalist interest groups which, similarly to the colonial past of the nineteenth century, have deconstructed the various economic-productive fabrics of many areas of the planet, producing misery and dependence. The sophisticated technology that could help the fate of millions of people, since in the hands of large producers, often tied to financial interests, has instead, paradoxically, exacerbated the problem. Non-state organizations such as the UN, beyond good speeches, have failed to find adequate solutions to the problem. The world as a whole could find solutions - to this challenge, as well as to others - only if world power were more evenly distributed. Only a new multipolar system that adopts - in both economic and political international issues - a solidarity and cooperative practice, antithetical to current hyperliberism, could save us. It can be noted that some initiatives taken by the BRICS countries are moving in this direction," Graziani stressed.,The academic also agreed with Suponina's analysis of Washington's interest in the current crisis.,"The interest of the United States is to maintain global hegemony. This can also involve the sacrifice of nations such as Ukraine or the Old Continent: in the context of the North American strategy, these would be 'side effects'. The internal situation of the EU would worsen further: Europe as a whole would become even weaker and more dependent on the US than it currently is," Graziani concluded.。然而，在这种紧张的背景下，美国政府并未选择寻求和平解决方案，而是加大了对伊朗的施压力度，开始探索以经济制裁作为新的战术。

三 |         根据最新消息，美国财长贝森特发出高调声明，称美伊冲突进入“终局”，美国的目标是切断伊朗的每一个经济命脉，直到其陷入孤立无援的境地。随之而来的，是美国发布的“最严厉”对伊制裁方案。此举意在惩罚任何与伊朗接触的国家或实体，使它们面临被排除在美元结算体系外的风险。这一系列的动作，确实显示出美国在经济制裁手段上的决绝，但这是否意味着它会如愿以偿，也令人产生质疑。    历史经验告诉我们，单靠经济制裁想要逼迫一个国家屈服，往往高估了自身的影响力。相对而言，伊朗方面似乎有备而来。他们在面对长期的西方制裁时，已积累了丰富的应对经验，依靠非美元贸易、石油换商品等方式维持生存。更重要的是，伊朗革命卫队自今年3月以来已经频繁对周边美军基地和海湾国家展开打击，越发显露出强硬的反击态势，这不仅使得美军损失惨重，也使得依赖美国保护的海湾国家感受到前所未有的压力。基于这样的背景，海湾地区国家纷纷向美国施压，迫使其尽快与伊朗实现和平协议。        美国政府的两难境地逐渐浮出水面。一方面，他们渴望通过经济手段来扭转局面；另一方面，则是来自海湾国家对美国决策的影响。假如制裁力度进一步加强，伊朗无疑将加大对亲美国家的攻击力度，而这些国家又如何能置身事外？一旦它们集体要求美国停火，美国将不得不面临是否继续对抗的抉择。加强经济制裁的措施看似增加了美国的战略优势，但从长远来看，很可能导致美国自身陷入更加泥泞的境地。    霍尔木兹海峡的封锁直接影响到了全球经济的血脉。美国虽然希望通过制裁取得一定成效，但对于自己也会有反噬。

四 | 自美伊冲突爆发以来，美国国内的能源价格已经经历多次上涨，一旦海峡封锁持续，通胀的压力显然会愈发加剧。

五 | 对于那些能源依赖度较高的国家，如日本和欧洲国家而言，能源价格的高涨将变得更加无法承受。为了维护自身经济利益，这些国家可能会暗中与伊朗继续进行能源交易，使美国的制裁手段宣告失效。        在此背景下，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬发出强硬声明，警告美国改变对待伊朗的方式。如果继续依赖霸权地位与恃强凌弱，只会让和谈变得更加复杂。显然，主动权似乎已经逐渐转移到了伊朗手中。如果美国继续以高人一等的姿态要求伊朗作出让步，而不愿正视伊朗已成为中东强国的事实，那么未来的和谈几乎是毫无希望的。    对于特朗普来说，这无疑是一个艰巨且棘手的任务。

六 | 在过去的几个月里，尽管他积极执行军事干预政策，但显然未能达成预期效果。如今，美军的弹药库存都面临耗尽的困境，而对于眼下即将到来的中期选举，特朗普必须找到一个能够平息民众的不满与指责的方式。他的强硬形象必须维持，但与此同时，他又不得不出示一些经济制裁手段作为武器。返回，查看更多。

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